Interesting Graphs on Current Topics

Dissecting the Global Crises

  • Coronavirus
  • Bloated Financial Markets
  • Oil Price War
  • Rising tensions in Iraq from US and Iranian influence

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Coronavirus

Capacity to treat severe cases across Europe
Does not account for any extraordinary increases in capacity or normal occupancy rates.

What should our response be?

What China got right

South Korea: Digital tracing of contacts...

What went so wrong in Italy?

The UK Government’s Novel Approach

The clearest explanation of Nudge Theory

Case studies of Public Skepticism

Hand Sanitiser Google searches across the US
Data from a year earlier there showed no such correlation.

Can the U.S. cobble together an appropriate response?

The US response aligns very closely to that of the UK. However, any eventual lockdown will be problematic in the Midwest.


The Desperate Search for High Yields

This market was in trouble long before the virus hit

When the government bails-out companies, it should retain a stake

Will these companies to pay back their loans? If not, will the markets be willing to lend them more money?

The FT article from which this was taken,

Oil Price War

Why does Saudi Arabia want to lower oil prices?

The US has increased oil production to become independent of the Middle East oil production. They achieved this by growing their Shale industry. Every barrel of oil costs circa $50 to produce.

Most major oil producing nations are part of a cartel called OPEC. They decide on how much oil to produce – they want to keep the price within an acceptable range.

Following a disagreement with Russia and OPEC, Saudi Arabia have decided to flood the market with cheap oil. Saudi Arabia is seeking Geopolitical relevance. They have production costs below $10/barrel.

By keeping the price below the production cost of shale oil, they hope to knock-out the US oil industry.

What is the U.S doing in response?

The real problem for the US oil industry are the significant loans that need to be payed back or refinanced.

Lowering interest rates helps to keep the industry alive – in particular at a time where they will not be able to cover production costs, let alone any initial investments they made.

With Shale losing money on every barrel produced, will the US government step in to rescue this strategic sector?

As a Strategic US priority, the industry is regarded as critical to national security. Expect a significant response.

Trump made a speech the following day, expressing the government’s intention to purchase oil for US strategic reserves at ‘very good’ prices. Watch the excerpt here.

Countries are extremely reliant on oil prices. Russia has $750 billion in foreign reserves, that will allow it to survive any oil price war for 3 years.

China in the Public Sphere

After surpassing a peak in published daily cases, the Chinese government has turned it’s attention abroad. FT article

Twitter banner of the Chinese Embassy to Italy
Illustrations of Sino-Italian support
Image circulating Italian social media, see the original post.
A subtle, but present seven dash line.

Economic ties and the perception of Europe
Offering liquidity, with clear market share implications.
Presumed caption – A resurgent China replaces an idle Europe.

Chinese Officials sharing conspiracy-like theories
In mid March, several senior Chinese officials have taken to twitter. They share articles suggesting that the U.S. is at fault for the virus. This one is written by Larry Romanof.

The European response...

A week after blocking medical supply exports, Germany has sent medical equipment.

The American response...

Companies compete for attention

As the public interest in case numbers of the deadly virus that has circumvented the globe wanes, corporates are now locked in an unprecedented battle to engage consumers – and cater for the surge in specific services…

Delivery companies desperate for more hands on deck...

With employees at Amazon warehouses around Europe protesting, delivery companies are desperate to satiate the spike in demand for their business,

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2890113991068391&id=2273346162745180

Supermarket chains are also on a hiring spree in the UK (21 March).

Online shopping adoption and internet speeds,